U.S. service members could miss their paychecks at the end of the month if the federal government shuts down this weekend, as the world's richest man Elon Musk, a close ally of President-elect Donald Trump, is advocating.

The potential loss of pay in the midst of the holiday season was looming Thursday after plans negotiated by Republicans and Democrats in Congress to fund the government and avert a shutdown on Saturday were derailed, largely by Musk. The billionaire spent all day Wednesday raging against the legislation on the social media platform he owns, X, followed by Trump himself coming out against the spending bill.

The twin attacks from Musk and Trump caused House Republicans to scrap the previous deal. By Thursday afternoon, House GOP leaders announced an alternative plan^[1], but Senate Democratic leaders were not involved in the discussion and some House Republicans were complaining^[2] about elements of the new plan.

Read Next: Veteran Suicides Are Down Since 2018 But Remain Persistently Steady, New VA Report Finds^[3]

In a government shutdown, troops have to continue working but don't get paid until the shutdown ends unless Congress passes legislation to allow paychecks to continue. The next payday for service members is scheduled for Dec. 31, and the Pentagon is warning that paychecks could be delayed by an extended shutdown.

"Objectively speaking, a lapse in funding will cause serious disruptions across the Defense Department and is still avoidable," Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said at a news conference Thursday. "Therefore, DoD urges Congress to reach a bipartisan, bicameral agreement on fiscal year 2025 appropriations and avoid a [stopgap spending bill] or worse, a government shutdown."

In addition to troop pay, a government shutdown could affect everything from on-base child care to temporary duty travel to elective medical procedures, according to guidance issued by the Pentagon during previous shutdown threats. The Pentagon had not publicly released new guidance by publication, though the guidance they've issued for shutdown threats over the years has largely stayed the same.

Potential effects at the Department of Veterans Affairs^[4] would be more muted because of the way the department is funded, but some headquarters staff would be furloughed, which could have ripple effects on veterans services.

It was unclear exactly how many days the government would need to be shut down for the Pentagon to miss its payroll processing deadline and therefore not be able to send troops their Dec. 31 paychecks as scheduled.

Ryder repeatedly stressed the possibility of troops not getting paid during the holiday season, but he also suggested that the Pentagon would work as fast as possible to get checks out once Congress passes a new funding bill.

"We're going to do everything we can to make sure our personnel are getting paid and taken care of as quickly as we can," Ryder said. "In an optimistic world, this shutdown could be avoided, but if it's not … again, we'll work to make sure that our personnel have what they need to mitigate the effects."

During the last extended government shutdown in December 2018 and January 2019, most members of the military continued to be paid because Congress had passed a full-year spending bill for the Pentagon. But the Coast Guard^[5], which is funded through the Department of Homeland Security, was affected by the shutdown.

That year, 42,000 members, including active-duty and Coast Guard civilian employees, went five weeks without pay. Many civilians were furloughed, but active-duty members continued to work.

The service curtailed operations such as safety checks, issuing and renewing merchant mariner documentation and licensing, fisheries enforcement and routine maintenance of buoys and other aids to navigation, and deferred maintenance on aircraft and vessels.

Food banks sprouted up around large Coast Guard installations, and nonprofits, including Coast Guard Mutual Assistance and the American Legion, provided loans and grants to service members and their families.

"These are our brothers and sisters," then-Legion National Commander Brett Reistad said at the time. "They were out there risking their lives, saving lives^[6]" during the shutdown.

In another instance, when the government shut down in 2013, members of the military were paid because Congress passed legislation specifically to protect troop paychecks during that time. Similar legislation to protect troop pay during a shutdown was introduced earlier this year when Congress last careened toward a government funding deadline.

But Musk's call for a shutdown also included a demand that Congress pass "zero" bills^[7] before Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, a demand that would seem to encompass any troop pay protection bill.

"'Shutting down' the government (which doesn't actually shut down critical functions btw) is infinitely better than passing a horrible bill," Musk contended in one of more than 100 posts he made on X about the now-dead bipartisan spending agreement since it was released.

Current government funding expires at midnight Eastern time Friday, meaning a shutdown would begin at 12:01 a.m. Saturday if Congress doesn't approve an extension.

During a brief lapse in appropriations, there would be little to no effect on government and military operations. For example, earlier this year^[8], government funding technically expired for several hours, but the White House issued guidance saying agencies did not have to shut down because congressional approval of funding was imminent.

When the government does shut down, all services considered "nonessential" stop.

In the military, that means all temporary duty travel and conference participation would be canceled unless it is in "direct support" of counterterrorism missions, according to shutdown guidance issued last year^[9].

Permanent change of station moves would also be limited unless the move is for an essential activity.

Military medical and dental care would continue, but any elective procedures would have to be postponed or canceled. Lawmakers have previously warned that "elective" could include procedures as important as kidney stone removal or a mastectomy for breast cancer.

Department of Defense Education Activity schools for military children would stay open, but extracurricular activities would be curtailed unless they have a funding source that doesn't require congressional approval.

Day care centers on military bases would also be available only if they are "required for readiness," according to the 2023 guidance.

Commissaries could stay open as long as cash reserves in a funding source known as the Defense Working Capital Fund were available. After that, only commissaries overseas or in remote areas of the U.S. where "no other sources of food are reasonably available" would be able to operate, the 2023 guidance said.

Whether on-base recreational activities remain available depends on their funding source. For example, in 2013, many base libraries closed, but bowling alleys stayed open. Exchange shops are not funded through congressional appropriations, so they would stay open.

At the VA, medical centers stay open because Congress approves funding for them a year in advance specifically to avoid any disruptions caused by shutdowns or stopgap spending bills.

Disability and education benefits for veterans would also continue, as would interments at VA cemeteries. Suicide prevention programs, homelessness^[10] programs, the Veterans Crisis Line and caregiver support can also operate during a shutdown, according to the VA's most recent shutdown guidance^[11].

But some administrative staff at the Veterans Benefits Administration would be furloughed, and the GI Bill^[12] hotline that veterans can call with questions about their education benefits would be suspended, according to the guidance. At veterans cemeteries, permanent headstone or grave markers couldn't be installed, and ground maintenance would be halted.

A shutdown could also potentially affect about 640,000 veterans who work for the government at various agencies and departments, including 90,000 at the Department of Veterans Affairs, said Will Attig, an Army^[13] veteran of Iraq and executive director of the Union Veterans Council at the AFL-CIO.

"These veterans signed up to serve their country in uniform and now in civil society, and now their country is letting them down," Attig said in a statement.

Related: Here's What the Coast Guard Is Cutting Back On During the Shutdown^[14]

WASHINGTON — China^[1] is expanding its nuclear force^[2], has increased military pressure against Taiwan^[3] and has strengthened its ties with Russia^[4] over the past year, according to a Pentagon report^[5] Wednesday that details actions^[6] accelerating key areas of conflict with the United States.

The report, however, also notes that the recent rash of corruption allegations within China's powerful Central Military Commission^[7], which oversees the People’s Liberation Army, is hurting Beijing’s military growth and could slow its campaign to modernize.

The impact, said a senior defense official, is a bit of a mixed bag because while there has been progress in some programs, China has slid back in others.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the U.S. assessment, warned that Beijing is working toward developing a more diverse and technologically sophisticated nuclear force^[8]. While the expected number of nuclear warheads has maintained consistent growth, China is broadening its targeting abilities.

Beijing is going to be able to go after more and different types of targets, do greater damage and have more options for multiple rounds of counterstrikes, the official said. The U.S. is urging China to be more transparent about its nuclear program, while also warning that America will defend its allies and take appropriate steps in response.

According to the report, which provides the annual U.S. assessment of China’s military power and is required by Congress, China had more than 600 operational nuclear warheads as of May, and the U.S. expects it will have more than 1,000 by 2030.

The Biden administration has worked to maintain a balance with China, building up the U.S. military presence in the Asia-Pacific region to be ready to counter Beijing while also encouraging increased communications between the two countries^[9] at the diplomatic and military levels.

That uptick in talks^[10] has coincided with a decrease in coercive and risky intercepts of U.S. aircraft since late 2023, compared with the previous two years. China still, however, does what the U.S. military considers “unsafe” flights near American and allied forces in the region.

The Pentagon’s national defense strategy is built around China being the greatest security challenge for the U.S.^[11], and the threat from Beijing influences how the U.S. military is equipped and organized for the future.

The corruption within the PLA has resulted in at least 15 high-ranking officials being ousted in a major shakeup of China’s defense establishment.

“This wave of corruption touches every service in the PLA, and it may have shaken Beijing’s confidence," the report said.

In June, China announced that former Defense Minister Li Shangfu and his predecessor, Wei Fenghe, were expelled from the ruling Communist Party and accused of corruption. Last month, another senior official, Miao Hua,^[12] was suspended and put under investigation, according to China's Defense Ministry.

The U.S. report points to a persistent increased military presence by China around Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims as its own. It said China's navy has been in the region more and that there have been increased crossings into the island's air defense identification zone and major military exercises in the area.

Just last week, a large deployment of Chinese navy and coast guard vessels in the waters around Taiwan triggered alarm as Taiwanese officials said it looked like China was simulating a blockade^[13]. Officials have said there were as many as 90 ships involved in what Taiwan described as two walls designed to demonstrate that the waters belong to China.

Taiwan split from communist China in 1949 and has rejected Beijing’s demands that it accept unification^[14]. China says it will do so by force if necessary, and leaders have said they want to be ready to do so by 2027.

The United States is obligated under domestic law to help defend Taiwan and give it weapons and technology to deter invasion.

The island democracy has been the chief source of tension between Washington and Beijing for decades and is widely seen as the most likely trigger for a potentially catastrophic U.S.-China war.

More broadly, the report concluded that the PLA continued its drive to develop greater military capabilities but “made uneven progress toward its 2027” milestone for modernization.

One area of expansion, the report said, is with unmanned aerial systems, which officials said are “quickly approaching U.S. standards.”

Regarding Russia, the report said China has supported Russia's war against Ukraine and sold Russia dual-use items that Moscow's military industry relies on. Dual use items can be used for both civilian and military purposes.